What actually drives a WatchMerit Score
The 100-point composite is built from six signals. Here's the weight of each and why the score can move even when the price does not.
A WatchMerit Score is a 0–100 number designed to answer 'is this a good buy right now?' in a single glance. It is a composite, not a magic index, and every input is transparent.
The six inputs
Price fairness (~30%) — how far the listing sits below, at, or above the market median for this reference.
Collector demand (~20%) — modelled from search volume, watchlist adds on WatchMerit, and community mentions.
Rarity (~15%) — production estimates, discontinuation status, and how often the reference appears on the open market.
Liquidity (~15%) — how quickly a reference typically sells at fair price.
Brand strength (~10%) — brand-level 5-year price trend.
12-month outlook (~10%) — directional projection based on the 30-day trend, capped at ±40%.
Why the score moves without the price
Because half the weight sits in demand, rarity, liquidity, and outlook — not price — a reference can drop 3 points overnight if a batch of previously-scarce copies hit the market, even if the specific listing you are watching has not changed price.
That is the point. The score is meant to answer 'today', not 'the day this was listed'.