Steel sports references: what is holding and what is drifting
A snapshot of the reference numbers whose medians moved most over the last 90 days across Rolex, AP, and Patek Philippe.
Steel sports watches spent 18 months correcting after the 2022 peak. Twelve months in, the correction has stopped being uniform. Some references have flattened, some have quietly resumed climbing, and a handful are still bleeding.
Holding firm
The Rolex GMT-Master II 'Pepsi' on Jubilee, the Nautilus 5711/1A in white dial, and the Royal Oak 15500ST are the three references whose medians have moved less than 3% in either direction over the last 90 days. That stability, more than any raw price level, is what the market rewards right now.
Quietly climbing
The Rolex Explorer II 226570 and the AP Royal Oak 15510ST have both put on mid-single digits in the last quarter. Both are hitting fair-band tops on WatchMerit for the first time since early 2025.
Still soft
Late-batch Daytona 116500LN examples are still trading below their 2023 medians in most markets. If you are a buyer, this is the corner of the steel sports market with the most negotiation room.